Monday, 20 December 2010

Why the ICC is wrong in Kenya and Sudan

Moreno-Ocampo and with equal measure, Washington, unquestionably are causing a political fallout that can split the cabinets of both, within Sudan and Kenya, at the very time day-to-day management is required by the African Union to keep the peace.

This blog author and the following writer believe ICC actions do more harm than good to Kenya and Sudan.

Why The ICC Is Wrong In Kenya And The Sudan
Source: Black Star News - www.blackstarnews.com
Author: Bob Astles
Date: Monday, 20 December 2010
Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor who has little if any real knowledge of Africa and its mass of mini-nations, seemingly has the one ambition of bringing the Sudan to disaster as the result of his personal quest for President Omar Hassan al-Bashir.

He is not thinking of the consequences that would occur during this period when the Sudan is organizing itself into a new destiny of nationhood. Here we have a person brought up in South America where crime, disaster, corruption and lack of democracy are endemic.

He seems unaware that Africa has had, and is doing its best to shake off, the yoke of colonialism and the White man’s re-drawing of borders that have left mini-nations divided in two or three different colonial countries which now makes it extremely hard toil for elected leaders to create "one nation, one people."

This is especially so when foreigners, with complete indifference to the needs of Africans, swoop in and corrupt different ethnic groups to gain the wealth of oil and minerals and in doing so bring ethnic violence that is then supplied with imported modern weaponry.

The Sudan is one such case but Kenya, right on the Sudan's border, now is also under the “iron fist” of Moreno-Ocampo.

Certainly we have seen atrocities committed during Kenya’s elections and certainly the super powers were saying and aware there would be killings, rape and human atrocities at such a time.

Yet this Western version of democracy is what the USA demanded. They shrugged their shoulders at more seasoned advice to let Africa find its own destiny and not let those like Moreno-Ocampo crack the whip upon young African nations where even basic schooling has not reached the hungry masses.

So now in Kenya we have President Mwai Kibaki and his Prime Minister Raila Odinga bashing heads together and thoroughly alarmed by the release of Moreno-Ocampo’s list of the Kenyans he wishes to put on public trial in a European court; especially as those named are key personalities of the mini-nations making up the newly formed coalition government.

Moreno-Ocampo and with equal measure, Washington, unquestionably are causing a political fallout that can split the cabinets of both, within Sudan and Kenya, at the very time day-to-day management is required by the African Union to keep the peace.

If the future welfare of these two large and important African nations were truly a matter of benevolent concern it would be clear that at such a critical transitional period both nations need a breathing space from constant hostile western press attacks and the ICC spotlight that are shifting daily the ground under the leaders’ feet.

Bob Astles lived for many years in Africa and was an advisor to Ugandan dictator Idi Amin.

"Speaking Truth To Empower."

Thursday, 16 December 2010

YouTube: WikiRebels - The Documentary (Parts 1 - 4)

News just in from Channel 4, UK:
In the last few moments the Wikileak's founder Julian Assange has walked out of Westminster Crown Court [London] where he was granted bail earlier.

"Justice is not yet dead," he said.

Thanking his legal team and the rest but truth to the say it was a cautious statement and short. And more memorable for the number of flash bulb explosions than for what he said.

He is now on his way to his mansion arrest in Norfolk [England].

Andy Davies will have the details tonight.

Read more:
http://www.channel4.com/news/wikileaks-julian-assange-freed-on-bail
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YouTube: WikiRebels - The Documentary (Parts 1 - 4)

The following in-depth must-see video report regarding WikiLeaks contains four parts. Click on YouTube logo on video to read transcript at YouTube.



Extract from YouTube - "WikiRebels - The Documentary (1/4)":
zerwas2ky | December 09, 2010 | 913 likes, 11 dislikes -
Playlist: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhTfOL9_HBE&feature=&p=6D8EE2E0B836F096&index=0&playnext=1

From the description:

"Exclusive rough-cut of first in-depth documentary on WikiLeaks and the people behind it!

From summer 2010 until now, Swedish Television has been following the secretive media network WikiLeaks and its enigmatic Editor-in-Chief Julian Assange.

Reporters Jesper Huor and Bosse Lindquist have traveled to key countries where WikiLeaks operates, interviewing top members, such as Assange, new Spokesperson Kristinn Hrafnsson, as well as people like Daniel Domscheit-Berg who now is starting his own version - Openleaks.org!

Where is the secretive organization heading? Stronger than ever, or broken by the US? Who is Assange: champion of freedom, spy or rapist? What are his objectives? What are the consequences for the internet?"

© svt
To date, the video has had 134,904 views.
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Further Reading



Photo: Wikileaks editor-in-chief Julian Assange arrives at Westminster magistrates court inside a prison van with tinted windows. Photograph: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images
Source: Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/dec/15/1
- - -

In Kenya, Bloggers React To WikiLeaks Cables
by Global Voices for Global Voices December 15, 2010
http://www.groundreport.com/World/In-Kenya-Bloggers-React-To-WikiLeaks-Cables/2932089
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  1. Zimbabwe: Regime Change - Unmasking Franchise Owners- AllAfrica.com
    Julian Assange: Courageous Hero or Terrorist?- FinalCall.com News
    Aljazeera.net - UPI.com
    all 7895 news articles »
  2. WikiLeaks confirms Russian tanks aboard hijacked ship were bound ...


    Herald Scotland - 4 days ago
    Washington encouraged the delivery of weapons to South Sudan even though it was the main guarantor of the 2005 peace agreement. The WikiLeaks revelations ...
    Leaked Cables Detail Kenya's Role in Arming South Sudan- Voice of America
    Cables Suggest U.S. Knew Of Sudan Arms Shipments- NPR
    Leaked cables claim Kenya sent tanks to South Sudan- Daily Nation
    GlobalPost - Safety at Sea
    all 258 news articles »

  3. WikiLeaks, Rashaida and Egypt


    Awate - Burhan Ali - 1 day ago
    WikiLeaks cables concerning Eritrea and its ruling ... My trip which started from Asmera took us a month to reach Sudan. ...
  4. Future crimes: Are WikiLeaks, piracy and malware related?


    SC Magazine US - 1 day ago
    Now, the diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks (love em or hate em) definitively show ....Hypothetically, if one were looking for friends of Sudan with ...
  5. Yemen key transit hub for Hamas arms: leaked memos


    AFP - Paul Handley - 7 Dec 2010
    ... arms flowing to the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas and the Gaza Strip via Sudan, according to US diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks on Tuesday. ...
    US used Israel intelligence to stifle arms trade: WikiLeaks- The Hindu
    US works to stop arms flow to Islamists - paper- Reuters Africa
    WikiLeaks: US Worked Discreetly to Block Supply of Iranian, Syrian ...- Naharnet
    The Israel Project (press release)
    all 49 news articles »


  6. What Raila knew about Sudan weapons


    The Standard - Biketi Kikechi - 6 days ago
    WikiLeaks cables claim Ranneberger wrote saying he discussed the tank ... told him the Government was committed to assisting the South Sudan and that there ...
    WikiLeaks reveals political plots after 2007 poll- Capital FM
    US cable: Kenya risks new violence without reforms- Bloomberg
    AllAfrica.com
    all 278 news articles »


  7. Sudanese voters in Nashville may give their war-torn homeland its ...


    Nashville Scene - Brantley Hargrove - 2 hours ago
    The vote will determine whether South Sudan, their former home, .... Among the diplomatic cables recently released by WikiLeaks was a notice that a shipment ...
    South Sudan is subjected into Big Brother USA bullying- Sudan Tribune
    Uncertainty abounds as southern Sudan prepares to vote- Montreal Gazette
    Memphis Commercial Appeal
    all 234 news articles »

  8. Wikileaks reveals Egypt Nile fear


    BBC News - Will Ross - 3 Dec 2010
    Cairo's Almasry Alyoum newspaper published the cable, one of thousands being released by Wikileaks. Southern Sudan is due to vote in a referendum on ...
    Egypt wanted Sudan referendum delayed- Bikya Masr
    EXCLUSIVE: Egypt requested delay for Sudan referendum- Borglobe
    Egypt says south Sudan secession looks inevitable- Reuters Africa
    Sudan Tribune - Middle East Online
    all 202 news articles »

  9. Foreign relations: Objectives of 'crucial state' remain frustrated


    Financial Times - Heba Saleh - 22 hours ago
    In keeping with Egyptian policy favouring a united Sudan is the revelation that Cairo asked the US in... On other issues, WikiLeaks is even more prosaic. ...
  10. WikiLeaks: Should the US recall Ranneberger?


    The Standard - 2 days ago
    QUESTION: Following the WikiLeaks reports should US envoy Michael ... which has been pushing for peace in Southern Sudan has on the other hand been ...

Thursday, 9 December 2010

Kenya: Wiki-leaked cables claim nation sent tanks to South Sudan

Kenya: Wiki-leaked cables claim nation sent tanks to South Sudan
Source: The Nation (Kenya) - Reprinted at www.afrika.no
Date: Thursday, 09 December 2010
Nairobi (Kenya) — The mystery surrounding Russian-made tanks that the government denied were destined for South Sudan last year has been unravelled by a secret diplomatic cable.

A 2009 cable released by whistleblowing site WikiLeaks says a senior State Department official produced satellite images that appeared to show that the tanks unloaded in Kenya were trans-shipped to South Sudan.

The evidence contradicted claims by Kenyan officials that the hardware imported from Ukraine was intended for the Kenyan military.

A bill of lading and manifest of the hijacked MV Faina, which was seen by the Nation when the ship was released by pirates showed that its cargo consisted of more than 812 tonnes of ammunition in addition to 33 T-72 tanks from Ukraine.

Other weapons on the ship included unpacked spare parts for the T-72 tanks, Soviet-made anti-aircraft guns and rocket propelled grenades.

The Chief of General Staff, Gen Jeremiah Kianga, laid claim to the cargo insisting that the tanks and assorted arms belonged to the Kenyan military after pirates released the vessel they had captured off the coast of Somalia after ransom was reportedly paid.

However, satellite photos released by Wikileaks show that the T-72 tanks' actual destination was in South Sudan. The photos, the cable says, were presented by a US deputy assistant secretary of state, Vann Van Diepen, during talks in the Ukrainian capital in September 2009.

The Ukrainian side is said in the document to have repeatedly insisted at the talks that the weapons were intended for the government of Kenya.

The Ukrainians stuck to that position even when Mr Van Diepen presented a copy of a contract that listed the actual recipient as the government of South Sudan.

A Ukrainian official "questioned the authenticity of the contract, and asked if the US had any better evidence," states the cable marked "secret."

The document dated November 9, 2009, was published on the website of London's Guardian on Monday but a search of WikiLeaks' own site on Tuesday did not reveal a link to the cable.

"Van Diepen, regretting that the GOU [government of Ukraine] had forced him to do so, showed the Ukrainians cleared satellite imagery of T-72 tanks unloaded in Kenya, transferred to railyards for onward shipment, and finally in South Sudan," the Guardian's version of the cable states. "This led to a commotion on the Ukrainian side."

Mr Van Diepen then warned that "there was nothing for Ukraine to gain from lying and a lot to lose."

He told the Ukrainians that the US would have to consider imposing sanctions as a result of the arms transfer to South Sudan in violation of international agreements. "A factor in US deliberations would be whether the GOU told the truth," the document added.

The Ukrainian side still "asserted that Ukraine only had a relationship with Kenya, and did not have a relationship with South Sudan," the cable continued. "Ukraine could not be held responsible for the actions of a third country."

The Ukrainians however did promise to "study this situation in the light of a partner relationship so that the US knows that Ukraine is a reliable partner," the cable said.

The document gives no indication of whether the United States raised the matter with the Kenyan government. Such a discussion might be recounted in US Nairobi embassy cables that WikiLeaks indicates it has obtained but has not yet released.

A ship carrying the weapons reached Mombasa in February 2009 after a $3.2 million ransom was paid to Somali pirates who had hijacked it five months earlier.

Source: The Nation (Kenya)
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WikiLeaks documents roil Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa

Christian Science Monitor - Scott Baldauf - ‎53 minutes ago‎
Embarrassing US diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks have put leaders in Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa in the hot seat. View of the WikiLeaks homepage ...

US 'aware of' S Sudan arms deal

BBC News - ‎1 hour ago‎
The US government has been aware of Kenyan arms shipments to Southern Sudan for years, the latest diplomatic cables released by Wikileaks reveal. ...

Pirates' Catch Exposed Route of Arms in a Tense Sudan

New York Times - Jeffrey Gettleman, Michael R. Gordon - ‎7 hours ago‎
The Faina was escorted into the port of Mombasa, Kenya, in February 2009 after Somali pirates were paid $3.2 million. Its cargo included 32 Soviet-era tanks ...

How US raised storm over Sudan tankers

Capital FM - Michael Mumo, Judie Kaberia - ‎Dec 8, 2010‎
NAIROBI, Kenya, Dec 8 - The purchase of military equipment from Ukraine caused a storm from the American government, ...

A Discreet Deal for the War in Sudan

Spiegel Online - Horand Knaup - ‎37 minutes ago‎
AP US dispatches have cleared up one of the most baffling weapons affairs of the recent past. In 2008, pirates hijacked a ship full of tanks ...

Wikileaks: Raila's secret list

The Standard - Cyrus Ombati - ‎4 hours ago‎
Cables released by whistle-blower Julian Assange revealed the names of people Prime Minister Raila Odinga wanted appointed in top Government ...

Wikileaks: US incensed by Ukraine's arms exports

RIA Novosti - Gary Hershorn - ‎20 hours ago‎
The United States is fighting a constant battle to stop the flow of arms from Ukraine and other East European countries to terrorist in the Middle East, ...

WikiLeaks: US official accuses Ukraine of lying about arms sales to Sudan

Kyiv Post - ‎21 hours ago‎
The US had satellite imagery that proved Ukraine lied about shipping arms to South Sudan. AP The US had satellite imagery that proved Ukraine lied about ...

Sudan: Leaked Cables Claim Nation Sent Tanks to South Sudan

AllAfrica.com - Kevin Kelly, Patrick Mayoyo - ‎Dec 7, 2010‎
Nairobi — The mystery surrounding Russian-made tanks that the government denied were destined for South Sudan last year has been unravelled by a secret ...

New York Times: Pirates' catch exposed route of arms in Sudan conflict

Kyiv Post - ‎8 hours ago‎
KENYA, Mombasa : A Kenyan military officer stands guard over Soviet made T-72 tanks at Mombasa port which have just been offloaded from the MV faina ship on ...

Friday, 26 November 2010

New Sudan war would cost Kenya, region

New Sudan war would cost Kenya, region
Source: AFP / www.capitalfm.co.ke
Date: Thursday, 25 November 2010


(Khartoum, Sudan, Nov 25) - A return to civil war in the event that south Sudan votes for independence would cost the country, the region and international community more than 100 billion dollars, a study published on Thursday warned.

Aegis Trust, an NGO, and three research centres including the Institute for Security Studies, based in South Africa, drew up four post-referendum scenarios, ranging from peace to a resumption of full-scale war between north and south Sudan.

In the case of a 10-year conflict of medium intensity, the losses for Sudan would amount to at least 52.1 billion dollars (39 billion euros), on top of about 29 billion dollars for neighbouring Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, the study estimated.

The impact on the international community would top 30 billion dollars in terms of peacekeeping missions and humanitarian aid.

"This report demonstrates the high cost of conflict. It implies that domestic, regional and international parties should be asking: 'Are we doing enough to avoid a war that might cost over 100 billion dollars and ruin countless lives?'" said Matthew Bell of London-based Frontier Economics.

The study calculated Sudan's losses in case of war on the basis of an annual 2.2-percent decline in Gross Domestic Product.

It would cost Ethiopia and Kenya more than one billion dollars a year in terms of forecast growth, the researchers said, warning that war would also damage Egypt, Sudan's northern neighbour and the region's leading economy.

The impact could be even heavier in the event of full-scale war that would disrupt the oil production of Africa's largest country, which has reserves of more than six billion barrels.

Khartoum and the former southern rebels signed a peace deal in 2005 after more than two decades of war. A central element of that accord is an independence referendum for the south scheduled for January. Since July, the two sides have been negotiating on key post-vote issues.

Chief among those crucial to a peaceful transition in case of partition is the sharing of oil resources.

Oil revenues make up the Sudanese government's main source of foreign currency earnings, while southern Sudan depends on oil for as much as 98 percent of its budget.

Most of Sudan's reserves are concentrated in the south but can only be exported through a pipeline passing through the north on the way to Port Sudan on the Red Sea.

An oil-sharing formula would benefit both the north and south, whereas an interruption in production and exports would damage the whole country.

"Reaching some level of agreement before the referendum is important not only because both economies need uninterrupted revenue, but also to sustain the confidence of oil companies in their existing investments," the International Crisis Group said this week.

In case of peace and healthy ties between north and south Sudan as well improved security in Darfur, Sudan's growth would steady at an annual 6.2 percent for five years and even reach nine percent from 2016, the study said.
- - -

Report On The Cost Of A Possible Return To War In Sudan
Source: SRS (Sudan Radio Service) - www.sudanradio.org
Date: Thursday, 25 November 2010
(Nairobi, Kenya) – A report published by a coalition of European and African economic and political think-tanks on Thursday says a return to war in Sudan would cost Sudan, the region and the international community about 100 billion US dollars.

The report which comes amid fears that the referendum could trigger an escalation of violence attempts to analyze the economic cost of war to the region.

Mathew Bell an Associate Director of the London based, Frontier Economics spoke to SRS in Nairobi during the launch of the report.

[Mathew Bell]: “The report is an attempt to do with economic analysis of what the cost of war to Sudan and the region and the international community could be. It very explicitly sets aside the very real and important human costs of death and suffering that would result in war but to take a financial perspective as a way of adding to the debate around the cost of war. The headline itself looks like it would cost in excess of about a hundred billion dollars to the combination of Sudan the region and the international community should war break out. That figure breaks down into about 50 billion dollar cost to the Sudanese economy itself. About a 25 billion dollar cost to the regional economy including Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda. And about a 25 to 30 billion dollar cost to the international community in the form of peace keeping in the form of humanitarian intervention.”

Mathew Bell recognizes the difficulties in measuring the costs of potential future conflict in the report. He explains the different scenarios.

[Mathew Bell]: “Because of the uncertainties of what may happen because nobody can be sure about what the outcome is going to be, we have looked at different potential scenarios; we have tried to come up with a range of figures. And the 100 billion dollar that we have been quoting is towards the bottom end of that range. And the Low, medium and high conflict scenarios are different levels of conflict from a low level civil war situation, to a very serious situation to a very serious full blown civil war that might involve some of the regional players as well, or ways of how to characterize different points in the spectrum of costs. What we don’t comment on at all is what the likelihood of different scenarios would be. But we want to give a range of potential costs.”

According to the report the evidence suggests that the net impact of conflict would be significantly negative. Sudan would lose about 50 billion USD from its GDP, the neighboring countries would lose 25 billion USD of GDP and the international community would lose 30 billion USD in peacekeeping and humanitarian costs.

The report by the European and African economic and political think-tanks on the cost of war in Sudan was launched in Nairobi on Thursday.